Azerbaijan Grand Prix Predictions, Odds 2025: Verstappen the Clear Betting Favorite
One of the most eventful, dramatic qualifying sessions saw Max Verstappen deal best with the elements at Baku City Circuit, as I offer my Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions while featuring the updated odds.
Versappen is the prohibitive -225 betting favorite after his masterclass on how to deal with long straights, narrow, unforgiving corners, and poor, gusty conditions.
While still receiving the second and third-shortest odds, Lando Norris (+600) and Oscar Piastri (+800) are way back after disastrous sessions in qualifying. Today's race starts at 7 a.m. ET (ESPN).
๐ For more coverage, check out our Azerbaijan Grand Prix best bets.
๐ฅAzerbaijan Grand Prix odds & favorites 2025
Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds to win via BetMGM following Saturday's qualifying session:
| Driver | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -225 | 69.23% | $4.44 |
| Lando Norris | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Oscar Piastri | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| George Russell | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Carlos Sainz | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Charles Leclerc | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Liam Lawson | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Isack Hadjar | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Oliver Bearman | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Alex Albon | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +250000 | 0.04% | $25,000 |
๐ Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds movement
Odds movement after qualifying.
- Verstappen's odds shortened from +400 to -225
- Norris' odds lengthened +250 to +600
- Piastri's odds lengthened from +250 to +800
- George Russell's odds went from to +1800 to +1600
- Carlos Sainz saw his odds improve to +1600
- Charles Leclerc's odds lengthened from +300 to +2500
- Lewis Hamilton's odds went from +700 to +4000
๐ฌ๏ธ Azerbaijan Grand Prix weather update
โ๏ธ Weather: 65 degrees, 25-mph to 38-mph winds, 30% chance of precipitation
Verstappen dealt with yesterday's gusty winds expertly, something the Dutchman has become renowned for. With the weather conditions seeing no improvement, Verstappen will be confident about being able to maintain the gap between him and the McLaren drivers.
๐ฐ Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions, expert picks & best bets to win
Here are my best Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions for Sunday's race at Baku City Circuit. It's the 17th race of the 24 scheduled for the 2025 season.
Editor's note: Picks and predictions were made on Monday, Sept. 15. Refer to the updated odds above.
๐ Pick to win Azerbaijan Grand Prix: Oscar Piastri โญโญโญโญ
Best odds: +180 via DraftKings ($10 to win $18)
Implied probability: 35.71%
Piastri won two of the previous four races and is the defending Azerbaijan Grand Prix champion. Last year's race at the Baku City Circuit involved a thrilling finish, in which Piastri aggressively and brazenly overtook Leclerc to snatch victory from the pole-sitter.
A couple of primary factors led me to back the Aussie F1 championship odds favorite. There are many opportunities to pass, and while it's the sixth-slowest track on the grid, Piastri is fearless and willing to take calculated risks more readily than his teammate.
It's that risk-forward approach that won him last year's Azerbaijan Grand Prix, which he considered his best victory at the time.
DraftKings offers the top value among the best sports betting sites. FanDuel's +145 odds are at the low end of the market, and that price carries a 40.82% implied probability.
๐ Best value bet to win Azerbaijan Grand Prix: Max Verstappen โญโญโญโญ
Best odds: +410 via FanDuel ($10 to win $41)
Implied probability: 19.61%
Verstappen ended McLaren's five-race win streak while notching his third victory of the season at the Italian Grand Prix.
He was my best value pick for that race, too. His chances at Baku should increase due to the track's slower average speed. As the sixth-slowest track on the grid, Baku's rugged street race can help offset the performance gulf between his car and the superior McLaren MCL39.
Verstappen can hang around for longer, bide his time, and pounce at the most opportune moment. He's one of only three drivers on the current grid who have won in Baku, and the four-time champ won't be overly concerned if he doesn't finish first in qualifying.
In fact, it might be beneficial not to take pole, as only one of the seven pole-sitters has gone on to win the race.
Verstappen holds some momentum after winning his third race of the season, and notching his first win in nine races. That could lift his chances of winning for the second time in Baku.
๐ฏ Best long shot to win Azerbaijan Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc โญโญโญ
Best odds: +1000 via FanDuel ($10 to win $100)
Implied probability: 9.09%
Knock, knock, knocking on Baku's door. That adapted version of the Guns N' Roses song should be Leclerc's theme tune for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, as he's taken four straight pole positions in Baku but has yet to make any count. Leclerc finished second last year behind Piastri, his best result.
He's also finished third, fourth, and recorded a DNF after being the fastest in qualifying. That tells me he's overdue, and Leclerc also races confidently at the Baku City Circuit.
His close-but-no-cigar theme has continued this season while finishing on the podium five times, four of which were in third place. You'll find his best odds at FanDuel (+1000), with DraftKings (+550) offering the least value at the low end of the market.
๐ Past Azerbaijan Grand Prix winners
Here is a look at all of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix winners since its inaugural race in 2017.
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ๐ฆ๐บ Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2023 | ๐ฒ๐ฝ Sergio Perez | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | ๐ณ๐ฑ Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing |
| 2021 | ๐ฒ๐ฝ Sergio Perez | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2020 | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic |
| 2019 | ๐ซ๐ฎ Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | ๐ฆ๐บ Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
๐ Azerbaijan Grand Prix trends & history
- Baku City Circuit is the sixth-slowest track on the circuit, with average speeds reaching 213.198km/h
- The track runs along the seafront before turning inland around the Government House of Baku. It features a slim section next to the old city walls, where cars squeeze through a gap of less than eight meters.
- Charles Leclerc holds the lap record (1:43.009), which he set in 2019
- Leclerc has won qualifying ahead of four straight Azerbaijan Grand Prix races, but he's still searching for his first win on the track
- Ferrari have won five of the seven pole positions for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, with Mercedes taking the other two
- Only Mercedes' Valtteri Bottas won the race after taking the pole position (2019)
- Six of the seven Azerbaijan Grand Prix race winners didn't start first on the grid
- The first Azerbaijan Grand Prix was in 2017
- Of the current grid, Verstappen, Piastri, and Lewis Hamilton have won in Baku
๐บ How to watch the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix
๐
Race date: Sunday, Sept. 21
๐ Start time: 7 a.m. ET
๐ Track: Baku City Circuit (Baku, Azerbaijan)
๐บ TV: ESPN
๐ป Streaming: ESPN+
โ๏ธ Weather: 72 degrees, 13-mph to 20-mph winds, 10% chance of precipitation
๐๏ธ Azerbaijan Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, Sept. 19; 4:30 a.m. ET
- Practice 2: Friday, Sept. 19; 8 a.m. ET
- Practice 3: Saturday, Sept. 20; 4:30 a.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, Sept. 20; 8 a.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, Sept. 21; 7 a.m. ET
โ Azerbaijan Grand Prix FAQs
Who is favored to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
Max Verstappen (-250) is the betting favorite to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix with an implied win probability of 66.67%.
What are the odds for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
Max Verstappen (-250), Lando Norris (+850), Oscar Piastri (+1100), and George Russell (+1400) top the Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds to win.
What time is the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
The Azerbaijan Grand Prix starts at 7 a.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 21.
How to watch the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix
You can watch the Azerbaijan Grand Prix on ESPN and ESPN+.
Who has won the most Azerbaijan Grand Prix races?
Sergio Perez has the most Azerbaijan Grand Prix wins (2).
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