Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds: WNBA Best Bets & Expert Picks for Tonight
It all comes down to tonight between the New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury as they meet for Game 3 of their WNBA first-round playoff series. The momentum shifts have been dramatic during the first two games, and I'm banking on more of the same as I make my best Liberty vs. Mercury prediction.
Phoenix is a 2.5-point betting favorite on their home court ahead of the 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2) tipoff at PHX Arena in Phoenix. But my WNBA picks, led by Breanna Stewart, bank on the road underdog playing spoiler.
🏀 Liberty vs. Mercury expert picks & predictions
WNBA odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Liberty (+124 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Liberty +2.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 156 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
📝 Liberty vs. Mercury preview & best bet
🗽 Liberty to win (+124) ⭐⭐⭐
The Liberty were embarrassed on home court with a chance to win the series in Game 2. They shot just 30.2% from the field and missed nine of their 25 free-throw attempts. It was a disastrous offensive showing.
Despite that, I’m fairly confident in New York’s ability to quickly move past that rough performance with a chance to set up a WNBA Finals rematch with Minnesota in the next round.
I have a very hard time seeing the star trio of Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, and Jonquel Jones combining to make just eight of 28 attempts (28.5%) as they did in Game 2.
I think getting this type of value on a team with as much star power as New York in an arena the Liberty have already conquered in this series is too tempting to pass up.
A $10 bet on New York to win would provide a profit of $12.40. The +124 odds from one of the best sports betting sites, FanDuel, have an implied probability of 44.64%.
💰 Best Liberty vs. Mercury player prop bet
⬆️ Breanna Stewart Over 13.5 points (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Breanna Stewart played through a left knee injury in Game 2 to finish with six points on 33.3% shooting in 20 minutes. I think the uncertainty surrounding her knee is playing a big factor in this line.
Stewart scored 18 points in 40 minutes during New York’s Game 1 victory and put in at least 14 points in each of the last five games of the regular season. She averaged 18.3 points per game during the campaign.
Getting a four- or five-point difference from Stewart’s season average feels like a great opportunity. Stewart also scored at least 14 points in three of her four regular-season meetings with Phoenix.
A $10 wager on Stewart’s Over nets out a profit of $9.09 at Caesars. The -110 odds have an implied probability of 52.38%.
📊 Liberty vs. Mercury odds: Sept. 19
WNBA odds update live in real time.
📈 Liberty vs. Mercury betting odds analysis
The Mercury opened as the 1.5-point home favorite, with the line being offered at -2.5 at some of the best sports betting apps. Considering the lopsided score in Game 2, it wouldn’t be that surprising if the line continues to inch a little higher in Phoenix’s favor at home.
🔢 Liberty vs. Mercury stats
Season stats courtesy of WNBA.com.
| Liberty (27-17) | Statistic (per game) | Mercury (27-17) |
|---|---|---|
| 5.2 | Net rating | 3.2 |
| 105.8 | Offensive rating | 103.6 |
| 100.6 | Defensive rating | 100.4 |
| 84.4 | Points | 82.8 |
| 80.3 | Points allowed | 80.1 |
| 33.7 | Rebounds | 34.7 |
| 21.8 | Assists | 20.9 |
| 13.8 | Turnovers | 13.5 |
| 45.3% | FG% | 43.3% |
| 35.5% | 3PT% | 34.0% |
📺 Liberty vs. Mercury game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 19
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Where: PHX Arena (Phoenix)
- How to watch: ESPN
❓ Liberty vs. Mercury FAQs
Who is favored to win Liberty vs. Mercury?
Phoenix is a -140 moneyline favorite to defeat New York in Game 3.
What is the spread for Liberty vs. Mercury?
The Mercury are a 2.5-point favorite against the Liberty for Game 3 on Friday at PHX Arena.
What is the Over/Under for Liberty vs. Mercury?
The total for Friday’s game between the Liberty and Mercury is 156.
What are the best bets for Liberty vs. Mercury?
My best bets for Friday’s game between the Liberty and Mercury are New York to win (+124) and Breanna Stewart Over 13.5 points (-110).
When is the Liberty vs. Mercury game?
Tipoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on Friday (ESPN).
How do WNBA odds work?
When betting on the WNBA, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -5.5 must win by 6 or more points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +5.5 must win outright or lose by 5 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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