Lions vs. Chiefs Prediction for Sunday Night Football: SNF Picks & Best Bets Tonight

My Lions vs. Chiefs prediction tonight backs the Over 52.5 (-110) on Sunday Night Football, with kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., set for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC).    

My NFL picks also target Chiefs WR Tyquan Thornton to make at least one big play in the passing game, helping Kansas City even its record at 3-3.

Our NFL predictions for Week 6 feature more sharp plays for Sunday and Monday Night Football, including the total and player prop below.

📊 Lions vs. Chiefs odds: Sunday Night Football

Latest Sunday Night Football odds updated live in real time.

🏈 Lions vs. Chiefs prediction: Sunday Night Football

NFL expert picks for Sunday Night Football; NFL odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Chiefs -2.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Over 52.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: Tyquan Thornton longest reception Over 14.5 yards (-118 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

✅ Lions vs. Chiefs best bet for SNF

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

⬆️ Over 52.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Urgency is already setting in in Kansas City, where the 2-3 Chiefs can’t afford many more early-season slip-ups if they’re going to have a shot at winning the AFC West. KC also has a bitter taste in its mouth after committing 13 penalties, allowing a 99-yard pick-six and making several other mental miscues in Monday’s sloppy 31-28 loss at Jacksonville.

In order to beat the Lions, however, you’re going to have to score. Detroit has put up at least 34 points in four straight games, and quarterback Jared Goff has completed 70% or more of his passes in an NFL-record six straight on the road.

Fortunately for the Chiefs, they appear poised to put up plenty of points of their own. KC’s offense has scored 65 points in two games since Xavier Worthy returned from an early-season shoulder injury, and the Chiefs racked up nearly 500 yards of total offense in Monday’s loss at Jacksonville. Meanwhile, the Lions are dealing with numerous injuries in the secondary and gave up three fourth-quarter touchdowns last week in Cincinnati.

Even at 52.5 - the highest total on the Week 6 NFL board - I think there’s still value on the Over, considering that three of the Lions’ last four games eclipsed the total by two touchdowns. Caesars and FanDuel both offered Over 52.5 -110 at the time of writing, implying a 52.38% chance this game clears the total and produces $9.09 profit on a $10 bet.

💰 Lions vs. Chiefs player prop bet for SNF

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Tyquan Thornton longest reception Over 14.5 yards (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thornton is averaging just 2.6 catches and five targets per game on the season, but he’s making the most of his opportunities when he gets them. The speedster’s three catches last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars went for 34, 32 and 24 yards, accounting for three of the Chiefs’ four longest passing plays on the night. He’s also recorded at least one grab of 33 yards or longer in four of five games this season.

Detroit is thin in the secondary with both of its starting cornerbacks injured, forcing the Lions to play Tre Flowers less than a week after signing him. That vulnerability has been exposed all year, with Detroit giving up at least one completion of 30 yards or more in all five of its games.

As long as Thornton gets his hands on the ball a couple of times, he should be able to produce a play that goes Over this low yardage number. I bet this at -118 odds at Caesars, which implies a 54.13% probability and the chance to profit $8.47 on a $10 bet, but DraftKings and FanDuel are also solid options at -120.

📺 How to watch Sunday Night Football: Lions vs. Chiefs

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 12
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• TV: NBC