NFL Picks Against the Spread Today: ATS Predictions for Every Week 6 Game

My NFL picks against the spread offer an ATS prediction - and confidence rating - for all 14 games remaining in Week 6, starting with Broncos vs. Jets in London and running through the Monday Night Football doubleheader.

My ATS NFL picks, part of the NFL predictions for Week 6, are 45-33 overall through five weeks. I look forward to a more fruitful week with my picks and predictions for all 15 games in Week 6.

🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 6 ATS predictions

NFL picks against the spread based on the latest NFL odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best Week 6 ATS picks

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🪖 Patriots (-3.5) vs. Saints ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I'm surprised the New England Patriots aren't more decisive favorites.

Head coach Mike Vrabel's team was superb against Buffalo, holding the high-powered Bills to 20 points, the second time since the start of last season that Josh Allen's team failed to score 30 points at home. 

The Patriots will face a run-heavy New Orleans attack, which should suit New England's eighth-best defensive DVOA against the run.

Saints' quarterback Spencer Rattler won his first game in 11 starts last week. However, that victory was more a result of the New York Giants' thinking that Christmas had arrived early, as they turned the ball over five times.

Meanwhile, Patriots' QB Drake Maye joined Tom Brady as the only two players with at least 200 passing yards, an above 70% completion rate, and 100+ passer rating in four straight games. 

Of our best sports betting sites, BetMGM's -110 odds represent the best value, and a winning $10 bet will profit $9.09. The odds range from -110 to -115, with the latter offered at DraftKings and FanDuel.

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🏗️  Steelers (-4.5) vs. Browns ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sometimes, bye weeks are an unwanted momentum killer. That's not the case for Pittsburgh, though, as rest is always best for an aging Aaron Rodgers and key injured starters Joey Porter Jr. and Alex Highsmith. 

Porter and Highsmith are expected to return to the lineup, which should make life immeasurably more challenging for Browns' rookie QB Dillon Gabriel, who is facing the daunting prospect of his first start on enemy terrain. 

While the Browns' second-ranked defense, in terms of DVOA, will cause issues for Rodgers and Co., I expect things to be much more problematic for Gabriel against an opportunistic Steelers' defense that created eight turnovers in the last two games. 

While the offense looked better for Cleveland with Gabriel under center, it still hasn't scored more than 17 points. DraftKings is the only one of the sports betting apps still offering -4.5. Like T.J. Watt on Gabriel, jump on it while you still have the chance. 

🐴 Colts (-6.5) vs. Cardinals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It will take me a long time to get over the Cardinals' infamous implosion last week, where they inexcusably threw away a 21-6 lead against one of the worst teams in football.

Their frailty and inconsistency shone through, which won't fly against an Indianapolis Colts team with the second-best offensive DVOA and best EPA per play. Two of their three victories at Lucas Oil Stadium came by an average of 29.5 points.

The visitors, meanwhile, have the 24th-ranked offensive DVOA and 26th-ranked offense at PFF. I can't see Kyler Murray and his offense going toe-to-toe against the resurgent Daniel Jones, who offers an intriguing NFL MVP odds outsider play and is among the most clutch QBs. 

At -105, DraftKings and FanDuel offer the best value. Those odds imply a 51.22% probability, and a winning $10 bet will profit $9.52.