Real Madrid vs. Marseille Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: Today's Champions League Best Bets
My Real Madrid vs. Marseille prediction expects the home side to put forth a business-like performance while picking up all three points as Champions League group stage play gets underway in a couple of hours. The action from Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid is set to get underway at at 3 p.m. ET (Paramount+).
My Champions League best bets think Los Blancos is safe as the -264 moneyline betting favorite, but find better value in them winning by at least two goals. My best soccer picks also have a player not named Kylian Mbappe to dent the twine at plus-money odds.
⚽ Real Madrid vs. Marseille prediction
Soccer picks for Tuesday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Real Madrid (-264 via bet365) ⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Real Madrid -1.5 (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 3.5 goals (-134 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Real Madrid vs. Marseille best bet
⬇️ Real Madrid -1.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Although early in Xabi Alonso's reign as manager, his fingerprints are already all over Real Madrid's new playing style. On Tuesday, Alonso takes his team into a Champions League battle for the first time, and I expect a solid, business-like performance from the home side.
Real Madrid, among the Champions League odds favorites, has opened its La Liga account with four successive victories.
More importantly, it is playing better defensive football and, under Alonso's watchful eye, allows no passengers, with everyone doing their part. Marseille, which finished second in Ligue 1 last season, is a good side that knows its way around European cup competitions.
However, playing Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu presents a distinctly different and more daunting challenge than anything Ligue 1 can offer, except PSG.
In addition, Roberto De Zerbi's side has sputtered out of the starting gate domestically, winning two and losing two.
I was tempted to back Real Madrid to win and Under 4.5 goals (-110), but the -1.5 spread feels more likely despite having a slightly lower implied probability (51.22% to 52.38%).
A 2-0 win sounds about right, but Real Madrid could score a few more if they bag one early. A winning $10 bet at DraftKings' -105 odds will profit $9.52.
💰 Best Real Madrid vs. Marseille player prop bet
🔥 Vinicius Junior anytime goal (+155) ⭐⭐⭐
Is Vinicius Junior a poor man's Kylian Mbappe?
Absolutely not.
Would I prefer to take Mbappe to score over Vinicius? Absolutely. However, the odds for Mbappe to score, -165 at the high end of the market, are more expensive than a front row ticket at the Bernabeu. So, I'm copacetic with Vinicius.
The 25-year-old speedster scored eight goals in 12 Champions League matches last season, seven of which occurred in Madrid. That's a staggering 88% of his goals scored on his home patch. This match should set up well for Vinicius, too, as Marseille is an inferior opponent, at least on paper.
Vinicius sprang out of the starting gate in last season's competition, with the uber-talented winger bagging seven in his first six matches. He only scored one in the subsequent six. And if the game script goes according to plan, Real Madrid will score at least two, possibly three goals, facilitating ample opportunity.
A quick caveat, though:
He will probably only have 60 or so minutes to score before being withdrawn. Of the best sports betting sites, BetMGM offers the highest potential payout. Its +155 odds will yield a $15.50 profit on a winning $10 bet, compared to $9.52 with Caesars at the low end.
📊 Real Madrid vs. Marseille odds
Champions League odds update live in real time.
📈 Real Madrid vs. Marseille betting odds analysis
Real Madrid's moneyline odds range from -264 to -280, an implied win probability of between 72.53% and 73.68%. The value lies in the -1.5 spread, which you can lock in for -105 at DraftKings. The total is set at 3.5 goals, but I wouldn't touch that with a 10-meter barge pole. Alonso's side could easily break out for four goals depending on when they score the opener.
📺 Real Madrid vs. Marseille game info
- When: Tuesday, Sept. 16
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Where: Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid)
- How to watch: Paramount+
❓ Real Madrid vs. Marseille FAQs
Who is favored to win Real Madrid vs. Marseille?
Real Madrid is the clear -264 betting favorite for Tuesday's home match against Marseille.
What is the spread for Real Madrid vs. Marseille?
The spread is set at -1.5 for Real Madrid. DraftKings offers -105 for the home side to win by at least two goals.
What is the Over/Under for Real Madrid vs. Marseille?
The total is set at 3.5 goals, with the Over at +110 and the Under -134.
What are the best bets for Real Madrid vs. Marseille?
My best bets are Real Madrid -1.5 and Vinicius Junior to score (+155).
When is the Real Madrid vs. Marseille game?
Tuesday's Champions League match featuring Real Madrid and Marseille starts at 3 p.m. ET.
How do soccer odds work?
When betting on soccer, the spread shows how many goals the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by 2 or more goals to cover the spread, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by fewer than 1 goal to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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